考虑动态定价的煤炭调运方案优化研究

煤炭坑口价格的变化与市场供求有重要联系.本文在煤炭坑口价格动态定价的基础上,以煤炭产地和消费地间的煤炭调运量为决策变量,以煤炭流通过程中的总费用最小化为目标,分别构建了煤炭调运系统优化模型和考虑消费者竞争的煤炭调运优化模型,设计了遗传算法和Floyd算法相结合的求解算法.以我国内地煤炭调运问题为案例,分析了价格变化特性、可调出量与消费量比例等因素对煤炭调运方案的影响.结果表明,考虑消费者竞争时煤炭流通广义费用更低;随着煤炭可调出量与消费量比的增加,动态价格较固定价格的煤炭流通广义费用下降更快.     

不完全信息下道路客运市场质量招投标的监督博弈

笔者在文中使用博弈论的方法分析了道路客运市场质量招投标中关于中标企业在不完全信息下的静态博弈监督机制,得到了混同的、分离的和准分离的贝叶斯均衡策略.然后建立了完全但不完美信息动态博弈模型和包括投标策略的两阶段不完全信息动态博弈模型,前者只有分离均衡.但在不完全信息下,当低效率运输企业的概率较低且它在中标时只要偷懒能获得足够大的利润,就有混同均衡,即低效率企业能冒充高效率企业在运输线路质量招投标中投出超过自身运营能力的高质量运输服务,然后执行低质量以获得其投机收益.     

杭州市交通状况及车联网市场前景的调研与分析

作为物联网在交通领域的应用,车联网可有效缓解当前的城市交通问题.为更好地把握车联网的市场前景,2012年底在杭州市开展了一次大规模随机抽样调查活动,在汽车4S店、二手车市场、高校、政府机关和企业内随机发放问卷共800份.根据对问卷结果的统计分析,绝大部分驾驶员对杭城交通状况十分不满意,造成交通问题的主因是车辆增长过快,大多数驾驶员对车联网应用及相关产品十分感兴趣,并愿意为之支付一定费用.由此可以推断车联网市场前景非常广阔.     

Evolving competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports

Shenzhen Port (SZP), once a negligible local port, has risen dramatically to a world-leading container port and an “equal” player with Hong Kong Port (HKP). Will this market share reallocation continue, or will equilibrium be eventually realized for HKP to prosper continuously? We examine the relationship between these two ports to answer this question. We propose a new transformation method to describe the growth of container cargo transport demand, define the quantitative measures of the competition relationship and port competitiveness, and present a rigorous analytical framework with econometric tests and models to understand the true relationship between HKP and SZP. Direct empirical tests suggest that SZP complements HKP; however, the two ports exhibit strong competition when the effect of demand growth is excluded. Considering transshipment separately, we find that the impact of SZP on HKP is negative in transshipment but complementary in direct shipment. We may conclude that HKP does not affect SZP, whereas SZP has competitive power over HKP. These results are consistent with the findings of some previous theoretical studies.     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

基于市场进入博弈的高速铁路与航空竞争分析

提出了一个市场进入博弈模型来研究高铁和航空在中等运输距离上的竞争,重点考虑了票价、服务频率和乘客在不同交通方式之间因价格变动产生的转移等因素. 作为市场在位者,航空有允许和阻止两种策略,而高铁可以选择进入或者不进入市场,运用逆向归纳法求解出各种策略组合下航空和高铁的最佳策略,通过京沪高铁的实例展示了航空和高铁博弈的结果,给出了博弈双方的利润、票价、服务频率,以及在市场需求变动、机型变动和沉没成本变动条件下三者的变动情况. 结果表明,如果高铁的沉没成本不高并且市场需求充足,其最佳策略是进入市场,而航空的最佳策略是允许.     

在金融危机下中国汽车行业营销新策略

中国汽车产业已进入了充分竞争阶段。单一的营销竞争模式很难再承担起品牌生存与发展的重任。在金融危机下,国内汽车企业为了应对各方面挑战,营销策略也在不断推陈出新。品牌联合营销,有利于实现资源共享,共担共赢;影视植入营销已成了汽车厂商推广产品的良方;体验式营销有助于消费者理性的选择最适合自己的产品,从而促进成交。“汽车超市”模式被誉为继“4S专卖店模式”之后的一次渠道革命。     

基于灰色关联度的客运通道运输方式竞争力研究

运输通道由多种交通方式构成,研究通道内交通方式的竞争力对乘客和运营部门具有重要意义。运用灰色关联度法,以成渝客运通道为研究对象,进行各种交通方式竞争力的演算,并通过与其他方法所研究的结论进行比较分析,证明其合理性与实用性,为相关研究提供参考。     

中国汽车市场中的“R值规律”及应用分析

针对中国汽车市场未来的容量问题,根据汽车发展先导国的经验（即新车注册数与R值都存在一定的关联）,通过回归分析,建立了新车注册数和R值之间的经验模型.讨论经验模型的使用范围,对其进行适当的分段处理,发展成为汽车容量预测模型,使其能够针对中国不同地区经济发展状况运用不同的预测参数.运用这套预测模型,给出了中国乘用车未来10年的汽车需求量.     

基于股市动量策略的实证研究

寻找能够在股市中长期稳定获得超额收益的投资策略一直是投资界和学术界关切的热点,超短期追涨策略一直也被实务界视为赢利法宝,为实证超短期追涨策略的获利性,本文以形成期涨幅指标及实务性的视角来构造沪深A股的动量策略,结果表明中国股票市场短期内不具有"强者恒强"的收益特征,否定了中国股市超短期"追涨杀跌"交易策略的有效性.